Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de facto secession for his Republika Srpska. His action could prompt leaders of the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) population to bolster their own capacity to protect their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.

Reference:

1. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence: Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community; Page 27. (March 14, 2024): https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf